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sports betting strategy

Developed in the 60s of the 20th century strategy of the Kelly criterion is an advanced strategy for a percentage of the bank. With its use of a fixed percentage of the bank is absent, and it is determined by the correct determination of the probability of the selected event.

Kelly criterion strategy may not result in total loss of the bank the player, since the size of each bet is determined as a percentage of the available funds on the gaming account.


Kelly criterion strategy has the following formula:

The optimal size of the rate = (an event multiplied by the coefficient of its own forecast -1) / (in the event of -1)

Consider the example of the calculation.

Suppose that your bank is $ 1000, and in the event coefficient is equal to 5.0. Your own forecast of 25% or 0.25. Substitute all the numbers in the formula and get the following result:

(5.0 * 0.25 - 1) / (5.0 - 1) = 0.0625.

Next, determine what should be your bet:

0.0625 * 1000 = 62.5 dollar.

The main principle of the Kelly criterion is that the series of unsuccessful outcomes, you start to make smaller bets, as the bank is reduced, and thus lose with less money. Even if you lose 6 bets in a row, with the average size of the rate of 10% of the bank's strategy is the Kelly criterion will help you to save 48% of their initial bankroll. If you define a stable factor in the events more accurately bookmaker by 10%, then the probability that the 10 unsuccessful rates by a factor of 2.0, you will eventually completely lose your bank is practically zero.

Naturally, the Kelly criterion is a strategy and not a means to get rich quickly, as the bank with each successful bet, correctly priced at the event could grow by only 5%. In addition, the player must be in the line of events that are truly undervalued, and such events on the practice is not so much (you can never find such in the current line).

For example, if the player selects an event having a coefficient of 2.0, then it must be completely sure that the chances of success can never be less than 50%, because the size of the rate is directly related to this probability. If a player made a mistake and on the contrary, overestimated the selected event, it risks losing a decent percentage of the bank, as the bet will then be too great. In such cases, it is possible to use the reduction factor. To do this, simply divide the resulting ratio is 2, thereby reducing the risk. It is also possible using the Kelly formula to determine the proportion of rates, ie, how much you need to put 1 and 2 of the selected event. This is done so. It determines what percentage of the bank must be put on the two selected events. Assume this is 4% and 2% for the first and second events respectively. If a player is planning to spend on both bets $ 100, then it is necessary to put on the first event of $ 67 (4/6) and $ 33 (2/6) in the second event.

Rates Kelly criterion system - one of the most difficult for the players, as it requires great knowledge in the field of sport, and the ability to analyze events on their own, without the help lines. And to evaluate the chances of the teams must be no worse than it is done by the bookmakers. Because of this, apply it to new players will be very difficult. For a start they need to gain the necessary experience of the game, in order to be able to effectively apply the Kelly criterion at sports betting.

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